TARGET 10. I can identify external factors that can affect the outcome of an elections.
Money! :-) Campaign finance laws.
Regulated giving is called hard money. There are limits placed on individual giving ($2300 per candidate, max) and PACs ($5000 max per candidate)
Unregulated money is called soft money. Money given directly to a political party (not directly to a candidate) is in this category.
Media. For instance, conservatives think the media backs liberal candidates more than conservative ones.
Polls, and the campaign as a "horse race" focusing only on who is ahead, and not what the real issues are.
Voter demographics (Age, education, wealth, nationality, race, religion)
Fraud, "chance", personal moral failures, current events and other items not planned for...